Zero Hour Approaches for Retailers; Net Lease Buyer Pool Growing

Terranomics Retail Newsline
Week Ending November 24, 2013

by Garrick Brown
National Retail Research Director at Terranomics/ChainLinks

Of
course, the big focus this week is going to be on all things Black Friday… but
we have been looking at that for the past few weeks and there are a few trends
that are already crystal clear.  Just as we have been saying for the last
few years, the movement towards Black Thursday would continue to accelerate. It
is happening and will almost certainly continue to happen next year as
well.  Don't expect some of the stalwarts like Nordstrom to change their
policies any time soon, but this year saw Macy's and others jump on the
bandwagon.  Within a few years the overwhelming majority of U.S. malls
will be open on Thanksgiving Day… and probably not just in the evening. 
Consumers continue to show up earlier and earlier… and yes, they are being
lured there by retailers offering bigger and better deals and doorbusters… but
what do you expect them to do when they have to increasingly compete with an
internet that knows no hours or holidays, for that matter. 

And, all of the recent economic news is pointing towards a better holiday
season than most of us expected just a few weeks ago.  Of course, the
forecasting of this is getting so micro that it is almost like trying to
predict the speed of the next gust of wind in a hurricane.  November
consumer confidence numbers will tell us a lot when they are released later
this week.  The retail trade groups all were predicting a 3.7% to 3.9%
bump in sales this year back in August and September with the first round of
projections.  But they tend to be optimistic and plenty of projections
after were in the lower 3% range, including my own.  Confidence fell nine
points last month thanks to the government shutdown and threat of the debt
ceiling. But consumers have an increasingly short memory.  If it rebounds
more than seven points with the new set of figures due later this week, I am
revisiting my initial projection of 3.0% to 3.5%. Yeah, I know it's cheating
but it's my newsletter and I can do what I want.

But enough of the Black Friday talk… we will have plenty of numbers to throw
your way in the next couple of …(read the complete article)

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